Modi-Jinping bonhomie: Putting the core issues on the backburner

 

Modi-Jinping bonhomie: Putting the core issues on the backburner

The deadly confrontation between the Indian and the Chinese troops on June 15, 2020, along the LAC in the Galwan Valley, had resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers, including Colonel Santosh Babu, and an undisclosed number of Chinese soldiers. The first major border clash in nearly 60 years caused outrage in India, significantly damaging bilateral ties. As per the 1993 Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement, India and China had agreed to strictly respect and observe the LAC between the two sides. However, China has been trying unilaterally to alter the LAC. It is estimated that some 2,000 sq km of territory, claimed by India, is occupied by China since May.

 

The Chinese forces objected to Indian road construction in the Galwan River valley, ensuing fighting on 15-16 Jube 2020 and the deaths of Indian soldiers. Since then, the relation between India and China are strained. China has built massive military infrastructure such as roads and all-weather roads, bridges, tunnels, habitats and dual- use villages, heliports along the entire LAC from Eastern Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh, over the last five years, besides hardened runways across the Tibetan plateau. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops are in a position to easily pull back 100-150 km and then come back again in 2-3 hours, posing serious security threat to India. India had lost access to 26 of its 65 traditional patrolling points in eastern Ladakh after the 2020 stand-off, due to increased Chinese assertiveness and a ‘play-safe’ approach by the Indian security forces.

 

On the sidelines of the BRICS summit held in the Russian city of Kazan between 22-24 October 2024, Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping met to review the relation between India and China, following the Galwan Valley stand-off. It sent a signal that the two sides are going to give a special thrust to bilateral ties, India showing keen interest in pushing to a step-by-step stabilisation of the relationship. Both the sides agreed to disengagement of troops from several friction points in Eastern Ladakh and the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, Indian visas to Chinese tourists and revival of direct flights between the two countries. After the meeting, Modi said: “We agreed to maintaining peace and tranquility in border areas and reaffirmed our commitment to cooperation based on mutual respect, mutual interest, and mutual solidarity.”

 

Since then, the two sides were engaged in ‘disengagement’ of the forces at the LAC, but they have yet to see a demobilisation of around 50,000 troops stationed on each side of the LAC. The process of de-escalation is not completed, almost a year after disengagement of forces, and questions remain about buffer zones created at friction points. On August 19, 2025, the Special Representatives NSA Ajit Doval and the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held the 24^th round of talks in New Delhi on the India-China border question.

 

And commenting on the meeting, China’s Defence spokesman Zhang Xiaogang said: “During the talks, the two sides had a candid and in-depth exchange of views on the China-India boundary question in a positive and constructive spirit, reaching multiple consensuses.” A diplomatic jargon that one should read between the lines to understand the real intent. Further, he said that the two sides should consider the positive momentum in bilateral relations and explore the right way for the two major countries and neighbours to get along with each other in the spirit of mutual respect and trust, peaceful coexistence, common development and win-win cooperation. Surprisingly, he invoked the principles of Panchsheel that China violated.     

 

It is in this context, that we need to understand Narendra Modi meeting the Chinese President Xi Jinping on August 31 in Tianjin where a two-day summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was scheduled to be held between August 31 and September 1. As he reiterated the significance China attached to a dragon-elephant tango, Xi Jinping made four suggestions from a strategic and long-term perspective to build a steady and heathy relationship in his meeting with Narendra Modi. These are: deepening strategic communication and mutual trust; expanding exchanges and cooperation for multiple benefits and win-win results, accommodating each other’s concerns; and strengthening multilateral cooperation to safeguard common interests. Whie talking about accommodating concerns, Xi reiterated China’s long-held position – stressed repeatedly during the eastern Ladakh military stand-off – that India and China should not allow the border issue to define the overall China-India relationship. In other words, peace and tranquility at the border and good friendly relation between India and China would be possible only on the China’s terms, having bulldozed its way.

 

The outcome of the meeting between Modi and Xi is interpreted by the spokesmen of India and China as suited them.  Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said: “PM Modi had made it very clear that the boundary situation will have an impact on bilateral relations in certain ways. Because of this, the insurance policy for bilateral relations is to maintain peace and tranquillity on the boundary.” The border issue was not a deal-braker in the meeting that Modi described as fruitful. The Chinese spokesman claimed there was no direct mention of trade or terrorism in the talks. He also said the relationship will flourish as long as the two countries act as partners and not rivals, and the differences should not be allowed to turn into disputes. The meeting did not see any major breakthrough.

 

In all this, Modi evaded the contentious issues, looking desperate to buy peace with Xi Jinping somehow, his ego bruised with the imposition of 50% tariff on India, including 25% penalty for buying oil from Russia, by Trump, whom he claimed a close friend. The Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi has demanded full restoration of the status quo on the border with China in Ladakh. Jairam Ramesh charged that “despite failing to achieve that, the Modi Government has pushed forward on reconciliation with China, de facto legitimising their territorial aggression.” He pointed out that on July 4,2025, Deputy Chief of Army Staff Lt. General Rahul Singh had spoken forcefully and candidly on China’s jugalbandi with Pakistan during the Operation Sindoor. The Government of India has acquiesced in, quietly accepting it as fait accompli.

 

The bonhomie between Modi and XI puts the core issues between the two countries on the backburner: the growing assertiveness of China on the disputed border and its unilateral encroachment on the LAC; the territorial claims on Arunachal Pradesh; siding openly with Pakistan on cross border terrorism; the recurring annual trade deficit of around 100 billion dollars with China and the like - none of  these issues is addressed squarely. It is imperative to have a reality check on China. Beneath the bonhomie lies a potential reset that drives India’s leverage downward.

 

The hard facts: India accepts buffer zone – no patrol areas carved into territory we once accessed freely; Indian patrols that for decades went up to the LAC now stop short – the status quo ante May 2020 has not been restored. What we are witnessing is strategic shrinkage dressed up as stability. In the Indian Ocean, Chinese submarine forays continue. In Islamabad, Chinese arms deliveries deepen Pakistan military edge. At the UN, Beijing blocks India’s initiatives on counter terrorism. India’s credibility with partners in Washington, Tokyo, Canberra, and Brussels rests on the trust that we are the democratic counterweight to a totalitarian expansionist China. By proclaiming partnership with China, we blur that premise, weaken allied trust, and dilute our bargaining power.  

 

India is negotiating from a weak position – be it with Trump’s America or Xi’s China. It is nobody’s case that we should not improve our relations with other nations, particularly with our big neighbour China. It is strange while we continue to persist with a belligerent policy of hostility towards Pakistan, we soft-pedal when it comes to dealing with big powers – America and China. Confidence building is only real when it reduces the adversary’s capacity or intent to coerce.

 

India has been accusing China of its ‘double standards’ and ‘double speak’ on terrorism. Now Modi tells Jinping that India and China are both the victims of terrorism. “If this is not the elephant capitulating before the dragon, then what is it?” asks Jairam Ramesh. And “even more anti-national is the fact that Prime Minister Modi remained completely silent on his conversation with President Xi about China’s jugalbandi with Pakistan during the Operation Sindoor. He betrayed the national interest with his clean chit to China on June 19,2020. Now, August 31, 2025, will also go down as a day of infamy for his cowardly kowtowing in Tianjin.” China is aware that India is negotiating with it from a weakened position. The American developments have accentuated a position of weakness that was apparent to Beijing.

 

Manav Sachdeva, a Global Goodwill Ambassador for Ukraine, says, “History shows that aggression unpunished is aggression repeated. If Beijing concludes that India will accept salami-sliced losses in exchange for summits and trade, then the next crisis is not a matter of if but when. And the next time, India may be more dependent, less trusted, and less prepared. Galwan should remain the anchor of our China policy, and not the ghost we politely forget in the name of pragmatism. The world looks to India today not just as a market or a military counterweight, but as the largest democracy – a civilisational state rooted in pluralism and openness. To clasp hands too tightly with Beijing, even as it represses Uyghurs, silences Tibet and dismantles Hiong Kong’s freedom, is to dim our moral capital.”  

 

Modi returned empty handed from the SCO summit; faced some awkward encounters with Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, its Army Chief General Asim Munir, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Myanmar’s military dictator Min Aung Hlaing, who sieged power in 2021 from the National League for Democracy – the party founded by Aung San Suu Kyi -  endorsing the Tianjin Declaration that condemned the  US and Israel aggression on Iran, and also Israel's genocide in Gaza, which India refused to do earlier. And the Trade Advisor to Trump Peter Navarro becomes very hostile calling “Ukraine war is Modi’s war”; India a “laundromat for the Kremlin”; alleging India selling the refined Russian oil to the West, and that the “Brahmins are profiteering at the expense of the Indian people.”    

 

It is ironical that despite being a member of the multilateral forums like BRICS, SOC and QUAD, besides being the largest democracy and the most populous country in the world and a founder of the biggest peace movement - the NAM, India’s clout in the international community has considerably diminished. That it is no longer able to influence and win friends is a matter of serious concern.