Saffronisation of the Hindi heartland

 

Saffronisation of the Hindi heartland

The recent election results in five states-Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram-proved all the exit polls wrong. The verdict in the five states has surprised political pundits, particularly the loss of Congress in the three Hindi heartland states. All the exit polls predicted return of Baghel government in Chhattisgarh. Both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh were considered model states due to the path breaking welfare schemes implemented in these states. The anti-incumbency of 20 years rule in Madhya Pradesh by BJP didn’t result in voting out the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government in spite of multiple scandals. The three veteran leaders of Congress - Ashok Gehlot, Kamal Nath and Bhupesh Baghel-have failed to deliver. Their overconfidence, complacency and failure to carry focused aggressive campaign and communicate effectively the benefits of welfare schemes to the people have contributed to the humiliating defeat.    

 

What made the BJP win the Hindi heartland states? Several factors have contributed to its win, foremost among them is the Hindutva ideology. After its debacle in Karnataka earlier this year, it sounded the Modi brand of politics and religious polarization have taken a backseat. But with the BJP registering massive victory in these states, we see resurgence of ‘Modi magic’ and communal politics occupying the center-stage of national politics once again. Narendra Modi’s popularity and his ability to win elections ipso facto is linked to the BJP and Sangh Parivar brand of Hindutva, admired and followed by most of the educated middle class and a large section of Indian people. That is how the people voted for the BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha election after the Pulwama terror attack in February 2019 that killed 40 CRPF jawans, and which, according to ex-governor of Jammu and Kashmir Satyapal Malik, could have been averted had the Union government conceded the Army’s request to airlift the jawans in view of the grave security risk in transporting them by road.

 

The people in the Hindi heartland states were simply asked to vote for Modi, nothing else mattered, though the BJP announced some last minutes welfare schemes, mostly copied from Congress, which it called freebies, to attract voters. Amit Shah, who was in charge of MP and Chhattisgarh election campaign issued guidelines to the party workers. This is the secret of massive victory for BJP in MP. According to its BJP Chief V. D. Sharma, some “40 lakh booth level workers followed Amit Shah’s strategy.  He had given the task of getting 51 per cent vote share in each booth in the state. Our workers tirelessly worked at 64,523 booths in the state and helped us reach the target “(IE,4/12). These workers prepared the list of beneficiaries of various schemes and distributed village wise and ward wise, carried door-to-door campaign and made the people to come out and vote for BJP.  Besides, Ayodhya and Ram Mandir issues helped them to mobilise people.  About 42,000. WhatsApp groups were formed to ensure coordination. This is where the Congress failed to counter the BJP.  The same strategy was followed in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan that explains the drubbing of the Congress in these states.  As Professor Suhas Palshikar says, “the current formulation of Hindutva includes the organization of violence as righteous nationalism and approves the idea of a strong authority as good governance.” Pratap Bhanu Mehta is also of the opinion that “the BJP engages in an identity politics of Hindutva. There is little doubt the BJP has created a core amongst Hindus that is comfortable with the political marginalization and even violence against Muslims” (IE 7/12). And according to Gehlot, the BJP resorted to lies, deceit and polarization and brought in religious issues to provoke and mislead the people as it had nothing to say on the State's issues and on the outstanding schemes in health, education, social security and public welfare.   

 

In contrast, the Congress registered a stunning victory in Telangana. A few months ago, no one expected the Congress to win in the state and unseat the invincible Chandrashekar Rao (KCR).  The reasons why he lost are: arrogance and inaccessibility to people(ruing from the farm house), family rule, youths anger for lack of  jobs; corruption, detaining and imprisoning the very people who were in the forefront of agitation for creation of separate Telangana state, crushing political dissent with iron hand; changing the name of the party from TRS to BRS to fulfill ill-conceived personal ambition of  KCR to head a third-front or federal front at national level that hurt the sentiment of the people. KCR failed to provide good governance and fulfill the aspirations the people had when the state was created.  Of course, the credit goes to the concerted aggressive campaign by the Congress and its six guarantees in the manifesto.  The party which created Telangana in 2014, hoping to gain electoral dividends, has now captured power in the new state after nine and half years to bring ‘Indira Amma’ rule.  This would not have been possible, but for the aggressive leadership of its state President Revanth Reddy. He resurrected a dead party.

 

In his article There is North Vs South (IE 6/12), Professor Ashuthosh Varshney asks: Why has the South escaped the BJP’s electoral juggernaut, and he answers: “Part of the answer is historical-cum-ideological. Hindu nationalism, the BJP’s avowed ideology, cannot break its link with its anti-Muslim core.  Development and governance alone do not provide enough political sustenance. Without antagonism towards Muslims for the ‘historical wrongs’ committed by Muslim rulers in India’s past and the idea of ‘Muslim infidelity’ to India, the BJP won’t be what it is.” The Hindu nationalist argument resonates only in those parts of South India where Muslims ruled, like Mysore and Hyderabad regions. The BJP’s Southern march is also arrested due to its attempt to thrust Hindi. Hindu nationalism is perceived as an attempt to impose Hindi on non-Hindi states. Because the people in the South are socially and educationally advanced, they do not subscribe to Hindu majoritarianism, unlike the North.

 

The victory of BJP in the Hindi heartland should not be taken as a foregone ‘hat-trick’ for Modi in the next year general election. It is possible to defeat the BJP.  Though the Congress lost in the Hindi heartland, its vote share has not declined, maintaining 40 to 42 per cent, marginally increasing.  Out of 12.29 crore votes polled in the four states - MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana- the BJP secured 4.82 crore, while the Congress registered 4.92 cores, that is 10 lakh votes more than the BJP.  And out of 83 Lok Sabha seats in these states, the BJP had won 65 seats in 2019 and the Congress won just 6 seats.  If we go by the present voting trend, the BJP seat share would fall to 46 and the Congress seat share would rise to 28 in 2024 general election. In 2003, the BJP won the elections in all the three northern states, but lost to the Congress in 2004 election, in spite of ‘India shining’ campaign of the Vajpayee government.  There is no empirical evidence to conclude that the BJP would win next year elections hands down and Modi returns to power.  The INDIA bloc alliance partners have not lost anything in these elections, as they were nowhere in the contest.  

 

It is a saffronisation of the Hindi heartland. However, nothing is lost except a moral booster for the Congress had it won in the Hindi heartland states. The leaders of INDIA bloc should burry their petty differences and personal ambitions and present as a unified coherent aggressive unit to fight the Modi-Shah juggernaut. It is an ideological battle they must win to protect constitutional democracy.